Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders for January reached 24,000 units, indicating a 28% month-over-month decline and a 15% year-over-year drop, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence.
The total fell short of seasonal expectations, coming in below the seven-year January average of 27,950 net orders. FTR noted that the threat of significant tariffs among North American trading partners appears to be weighing on demand, challenging the positive momentum that marked the start of the 2025 order season.
However, FTR’s data indicated that cumulative orders from September 2024 through January 2025 for build in 2025 remain 3% higher year-over-year, and over the past 12 months, Class 8 orders have totaled 276,917 units.
FTR noted a slowdown in orders across OEMs in January, following several months of strong seasonal performance. The on-highway segment accounted for most of the month-over-month drop, while vocational orders remained flat.
Meanwhile, ACT Research pegged preliminary Class 8 net orders at 25,800 units, down 30% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year decrease.
Despite the pullback in January, ACT president and senior analyst Kenny Vieth said that Class 8 order activity remains strong. Compared to December 2024, orders dropped 30%, against a seasonally stronger December.
When adjusted for seasonal trends, Vieth said that January orders fell by 22% from December to 23,300 units, which may suggest seasonal fluctuations rather than weakening demand.
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Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, at FTR, pointed out the impact of President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on potential upward costs.
“A 25% US tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico – currently paused for trade negations through early March – and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports as of Feb. 4 could significantly increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks and parts if fully implemented and enforced indefinitely,” Moyer said.
American Trucking Associations President and CEO Chris Spear estimated that a 25% tariff levied on Mexico, a major assembly and component hub for truck OEMs, could see the price of a new tractor increase by as much as $35,000.
Given that 40% of U.S. Class 8 trucks are built in Mexico and 65% of Canada’s Class 8 trucks are produced in the U.S., Moyer said the tariffs and potential retaliatory measures could add further strain.
Moyer added that the upcoming EPA 2027 NOx regulations may also influence fleet purchasing decisions, either delaying or accelerating equipment upgrades.
OEMs and suppliers could explore shifting production to offset tariff impacts, Moyer said, though adjustments would require time and investment.
“Ongoing trade negotiations and policy uncertainties may already be influencing investment decisions and long-term planning for fleets, OEMs, and suppliers,” he said.
