Preliminary Class 8 net orders in October marked a 14% month-over-month decline, but a 2% year-over-year increase, totaling 28,300 units, according to preliminary data from FTR Transportation Intelligence.
The figure falls slightly below seasonal expectations, as the average October order volume over the past seven years has been 33,940 units. While this is a solid number given the continued slowdown in the truck freight market, FTR noted that it indicates some fleets may be exercising caution in placing orders for 2025. Normally, orders in October tend to show a modest increase over the previous month.
ACT Research
[RELATED: Class 8 net orders jumped above trend in September, signifying balanced order number]
ACT Research reported that October preliminary Class 8 net orders were 30,600 units, down 5.2% year-over-year.
After a strong launch for 2025 orders in September, medium and heavy-duty orders declined in October, said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Class 8 orders dropped by 30% from September to 24,500 units, equivalent to a 294,000 annualized rate.
FTR’s data showed that year-to-date performance has stayed within replacement demand levels, averaging 21,211 net orders per month. October 2024 YTD net orders were up 11% year-over-year, with Class 8 orders totaling 274,174 units over the past 12 months.
Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles, noted that OEMs saw a month-over-month dip in total market demand, though results varied as some OEMs saw gains, while others faced declines. “The on-highway market showcased a notable jump in demand, softening the blow from the declines observed in the overall vocational sector,” he said.
Though the freight market remains soft, fleets have maintained their investment in new equipment, largely at replacement demand levels so far in 2024, Moyer said. FTR anticipates a slight uptick in October backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month.
“With inventory levels remaining close to record highs, we also foresee continued downward pressure on production rates through the reminder of 2024," he added.
Truckload capacity pressures grow
Meanwhile, CDL downgrades may be set to reduce truckload capacity, ACT noted.
Lower equipment supply, especially among private fleets, could play a role in a market turn next year, according to Tim Denoyer, ACT’s vice president and senior analyst. The FMCSA regulation might lead to the downgrade of CDL holders in states that previously weren’t required to enforce the FMCSA’s Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse.
Though it’s hard to predict the impact, Denoyer explained that if state driver’s license agencies downgrade a significant number of CDLs on Nov. 18, it would likely benefit the industry in two ways: improving road safety and increasing truckload rates.
ACT Research
While the DAT load-to-truck ratio isn’t exactly a scale of 1 to 10, ACT noted that it can rise beyond 10. For example, it rose to mid-teens in 2017 and early 2018, and even higher in 2021, peaking above 20. ACT’s aggregated seasonally adjusted DAT load-to-truck ratio moved above 7 in early October, indicating a modest increase in spot rates in the near term.
However, Denoyer concluded that necessary rebalancing of equipment capacity to significantly raise rates in 2025 hasn’t arrived yet.
