Less-than-truckload carriers Old Dominion Freight Line (CCJ Top 250, No. 9), XPO (No. 7), and Saia (No. 19) reported year-over-year declines in shipments per day during May. ODFL’s tonnage fell -6.8%, XPO -5%, and a modest decline from Saia at -0.4%.
ODFL and XPO saw weight per shipment fall (-1.9% and -0.7%, respectively), while Saia bucked the trend with a 3% increase in weight per shipment.
For the quarter-to-date period in 2025 versus QTD 2024, the carriers showed mixed performance. ODFL noted strength, with LTL revenue per hundredweight increasing by 3.2%, and by 5.2% when excluding fuel surcharges.
Saia indicated relative resilience for the QTD period in 2025, while LTL shipments declined -2.6% compared to the same period in 2024, LTL tonnage per workday still rose by 2%, supported by a 4.7% increase in LTL weight per shipment.
XPO did not disclose quarter-to-date figures.
Marty Freeman, president and CEO of Old Dominion, said in a statement that the revenue results for May reflect ongoing challenges in the economy, as well as the impact of lower fuel prices on overall yield.
Despite the year-over-year decline in LTL volume, Freeman said ODFL believes market share has remained “relatively consistent throughout this extended period of economic softness.”
Although the broader economic outlook remains uncertain, Freeman said the company is committed to executing its long-term strategic plan. “Our service metrics and value proposition remain best in class, which we believe puts us in a unique position to win profitable market share and increase shareholder value over the long term."
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The Cass Freight Index for Shipments was down -0.4% month-over-month in May, with a -4% year-over-year decline.
“The trade war is having a variety of effects, with pre-tariff consumer spending still supporting freight demand,” said Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “The negative consequences of tariff effects are partly reflected in May data, as pre-tariff inventory stocking has started to turn to destocking, and those stocks will start to thin in the coming months."
ACT Research projects that tariffs will extend the for-hire freight recession into 2026, following a temporary Q3 rebound.
“The ‘major questions doctrine’ is a legal argument the Supreme Court used to limit Biden’s authority on student loans and climate, ruling that federal agencies can’t make sweeping changes without clear congressional authorization,” ACT Research noted on its Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook report.
It was also cited by the U.S. Court of International Trade in a May ruling that declared reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (which President Trump invoked to impose tariffs) unlawful, ACT Research said.
“These tariffs continue as the ruling is stayed,” the report said.
International trade represents a significant portion (around 16% to 25%) of U.S. surface freight volumes, said Denoyer.
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“With a historic backlog on the Supreme Court’s emergency docket, but no appeal of the stay at this point, it’s not likely to be decided before the court takes a few months off soon,” he said.
However, if a future appeal succeeds, Denoyer added that it could lower U.S. import tariffs from around 20% to single-digit levels. Even sending the issue to Congress for resolution would improve outlook for goods demand.
“By contrast, the Section 232 tariffs on steel & aluminum, currently 50%, are on firmer legal ground, which is affecting equipment supply. Both have significant implications for freight markets,” Denoyer said.
Manufacturing activity, which has a significant impact on freight activity, also fell for the third consecutive month in May, according to the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The May PMI registered at 48.5 (a reading of 50 or higher signals growth), down 0.2% from April’s 48.7. Tariff and economic uncertainty were listed as major concerns in the ISM survey.
