The number of Class 8 trucks on the highway reached about 3 million units in 2016, consistent with 2015 and about the same as the pre-recession period from 2006 through 2009.
Speaking at the Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue in Las Vegas Monday, MacKay and Co. President Stu MacKay notes the truck population today is consistent with pre-recession numbers, but utilization rates have not followed.
“We’re running at a lower utilization rate now than we were a decade or so ago,” he says. “Probably some of it is driven by hours of service regulations, impacting how effectively and efficiently the equipment can be used.”
Equipment utilization was about 85 percent in 2016 while trailer utilization fell about one percent from 2016 to 2015, and the coming ELD mandate is likely to further shake those figures.
John Blodgett, vice president of sales and marketing for MacKay and Co., forecasts utilization to improve by 2 percent in the U.S. in 2017, with a 1 percent price increase in the next year over 2016.
Bob Dieli, president RDLB, Inc., says ELDs are likely to change how both drivers and their equipment is used, having some level of impact on efficiency.
Bill Strauss, senior economist and economic advisor for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, says it’s too early to tell if the Trump administration will have any effect on the economics of trucking.
